Old Crop US Soybean Crop likely Underestimated – 10/01/2022

Bullish Soybean traders were disappointed as the September Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed the old crop soybean carryout was 34 million bushels larger than USDA estimated just a few weeks earlier. The increase in carryout creates a negative residual in the 2021/2022 US soybean balance table and likely means the 2021 US soybean crop was larger than estimated in the January Annual crop Report. We have reworked the table published by USDA on September 12 assuming a zero residual and a 2021 crop  of 4.45 billion bushels  compared to the USDA estimate of 4.435 billion bushels.  

The underestimate for the old crop doesn’t necessarily mean the US new crop soybean estimate (4.39 billion bushels in September) will be increased, but the bigger carry in stock does add to the new crop supply and dims the new soybean crop price outlook a bit. The next Crop and S/D report is scheduled for release October 12,2022.

This month the market’s attention will shift f rom the US 2022 crop  to South American soybean prospects which will be harvested in February through June.