Old Crop Soybean Carryout larger than Anticipated – 09/30/2021

USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report put the 2020/2021 US soybean carryout at 256 million bushels, up from the September WAOB estimate of 175 million bushels. We have also calculated a what if new crop 2021/2022 US soybean balance balance assuming a drop in the 2021 US  soybean yield estimate to 49.7 bushels compared to the September estimate of 50.6 bushels per harvested acre. Our basis for using a lower yield estimate is the weekly crop conditions index at the end of the 2021 growing season which pointed to a more conservative yield.