Old Crop Corn Carryover – 9/1/2023
There appears a significant chance the old crop US corn carryout (September 1 stocks) will fall short of USDA’s August 2023 estimate. USDA assumed 4th quarter (June/August) feed usage at 596 million bushels which would be the least since 2016. We have assumed feed usage at least 100 million bushels larger. US corn exports were slow last quarter, but not quite as slow as USDA assumed. Corn usage for summer fuel production may have slowed a little more than USDA assumed.
In total the September 1 US corn stocks (Scheduled for release with the September grain stocks report on September 29, 2023) could fall 150 million bushels short of USDA’s August estimate.
| US old crop (2022/2023) Corn Balance Mil Bu. | ||
| USDA August | “What If” | |
| Area Planted | 88.6 | 88.6 |
| Area Harvested | 79.2 | 79.2 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 173.3 | 173.3 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,377 | 1,377 |
| Production | 13,730 | 13,730 |
| Imports | 35 | 35 |
| Supply, Total | 15,142 | 15,142 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,425 | 5,550 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6,635 | 6,615 |
| Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 5,225 | 5,200 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,060 | 12,060 |
| Exports | 1,625 | 1,670 |
| Use, Total | 13,685 | 13,835 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,457 | 1,307 |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ | $6.60 | $6.60 |
| Carry % Usage | 11% | 9% |