Old Crop Chicago Wheat rally Projected
Chicago May 2025 wheat is trading at the low end of our projected range. USDA expects the old crop (2024/2025) US wheat carryout to increase 15% compared to a year ago, but the world wheat carryout is estimated to decline about 9 million tonnes or 3%.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage Balance (Million Bushels) | ||||
| 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Percent | |
| Area Planted | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.1 | -7% |
| Area Harvested | 35.5 | 37.1 | 38.5 | 4% |
| yield | 46.5 | 48.7 | 51.2 | 5% |
| Beginning Stocks | 674 | 570 | 696 | |
| Production | 1650 | 1804 | 1971 | 9% |
| Imports | 122 | 138 | 130 | -6% |
| Supply, Total | 2446 | 2512 | 2798 | |
| Food | 972 | 961 | 966 | 1% |
| Seed | 68 | 62 | 64 | 3% |
| Feed and Residual | 74 | 85 | 120 | 41% |
| Domestic, Total | 1114 | 1108 | 1150 | |
| Exports | 762 | 707 | 850 | 20% |
| Use, Total | 1876 | 1815 | 2000 | 10% |
| Ending Stocks | 570 | 696 | 798 | 15% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.55 | -20% |
| co/usage | 30% | 38% | 39.9% | |
|
May Chicago Wheat Winter/Spring Price
|
range | |||
| High | $8.08 | $6.71 | $7.00 | |
| Low | $5.96 | $5.24 | $5.68 | |
| Data based data available in January 2025. | ||||
Our work suggests a winter/spring May wheat price range of $5.50 to $7.00. On 01/15/2025 May Chicago wheat was trading at $5.62.
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