November US Cattle on Feed Report and Beef Production Projection – 12/23/2023
The USDA’s November 2023 US feedlot survey reported cattlemen placed 2% fewer feeder cattle then in the same month a year ago. Finished cattle marketings in November declined 7% year over year leaving cattle on feed December 1, 2023 up 3% from the previous year. Last autumn expensive feeder cattle and cheaper feed costs resulted in feedlot operators to extending the feeding period of cattle already in lots. March Feeder prices have lost $20/Cwt. relative to April live (finished) cattle over the past two months reducing the economic advantage of longer feedlot time and heavier finished cattle sale weights.
We have used feedlot data and other economic statistics to derive an estimate of first half 2024 US beef production. The estimates are summarized in the accompanying table. Note our estimate aligns closely with the 2024 US beef production forecast published by USDA earlier this month.
| US Cattle Slaughter / Beef Production January/June Thousands | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Feedlot Mkt | 11,365 | 11,466 | 11,162 | 11,150 |
| Non Fed | 1,547 | 1,514 | 1,508 | 1,350 |
| Cows& Bulls | 3,535 | 3,760 | 3,611 | 3,400 |
| FIS | 16,447 | 16,740 | 16,281 | 15,900 |
| commercial | 16,775 | 17,072 | 16,592 | 16,218 |
| Com% FIS | 102% | 102% | 102% | 102% |
| Com Beef Mil Lbs. | 13,852 | 14,053 | 13,533 | 13,266 |
| Weight Lbs. Dressed | 826 | 823 | 816 | 818 |
| Forecast for 2024 based on data available in late December 2023. | ||||
The US cattle herd is unlikely to expand at the current rate heifers are moving into feedlots rather than being held for breeding. The need to expand the US cattle herd will likely be a price supporting force again in 2024.