November Soybeans vs Two December Corn – 05/18/2022

The November – December corn spread is trading close to zero on a one soybean contract to two corn contracts basis which is at the low end of the range established since the year 2000. Historically the soybean to two corn  spread during the summer growing and fall harvest season  has been correlated with the expectation of the new crop carryout as expressed in USDA’s monthly supply/demand forecasts. The  new crop corn carryout stock forecast has been especially important.  The one soybean two corn has the potential to trade well below zero if summer weather proves unfavorable for corn production. But soybeans can be expected to  regain a premium to two corn in a more normal season.

Spread graphed on a one soybean to two corn contracts basis.