November Soybeans Summer-Harvest Trading Range – 06/20/2022

This month USDA forecast the new crop (2022-2023) US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or six percent of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter studies display the summer/harvest high and low for November  soybeans as a function of the new crop US soybean crop year usage ratio as forecast by USDA in early harvest.

The  points marked in red are based on USDA”s current new crop soybean S/D forecast and the seasonal price projection (based  on data from 1970 through 2021) of $12.5 to $16.6 per bushel.

The critical period for the US soybean crop is mid July through mid August. Trader’s perception of the new crop soybean supply/usage outlook could diverge from USDA’s current (June) forecast.