New Crop Wheat Outlook – 02/21/2022

USDA’s current wheat projections suggest a modest build up in US wheat carryout stocks over the 2022/2023 crop year. USDA is counting on a return to trend wheat yield after a sub par year in 2021. USDA is also assuming a two million plus increase in planted area. In the January survey farmers reported less than a one million acre increase in  winter wheat seeded last autumn. Spring wheat farmers will likely respond to $8.00 plus wheat by increasing the area planted by more than enough to reach USDA’s area planted to wheat trend forecast.

US winter wheat yields are determined by weather in March through May. Late May through early July is the critical period for spring wheat. Considering the  fine wheat supply/usage balance envisioned by USDA, the wheat futures market will be sensitive if weekly crop ratings are disappointing in the April through early July period. USDA ‘s weekly condition reports have a tight correlation with US wheat yields.

Data in Million Bushels.  2022/2023 USDA trend forecast.