New Crop Soybean Sales Weak – 04/19/2024

New crop US soybean sales totaled only 17 million bushels  on April 11 which is the smallest total for that date since the 2002/2003  crop year. Export traders prefer to depend on South American soybean supplies as the huge 2024 in Brazil and Argentina crop will last well into the new US soybean crop year. 

Small soybean export sales and the outlook for an ample old crop US soybean carryover, has pushed the November – July spread to near even money. The November/July soybean spread has traded at a carrying charge sometime in the spring/summer period in 50%  of years based on data in the last 50  years.

November soybeans futures prices would get an extra push if a major weather market develops this summer. Otherwise traders would likely be content  to wait for new crop (2025) developments in South America.