New Crop Soybean Outlook – 02/21/2022
The US new crop (September 2022/August 2023)soybean carryout would not change much from the old crop February 2022 estimate based on USDA’s trend line forecasts. USDA has soybean planted area less than half million acres larger in 2022 than that planted in 2021. Farmers are likely to take advantage of current favorable soybean prices by increasing acreage by closer to three million plus acres. The USDA’s national soybean yield assessment seems fair at this point.
US soybean usage prospects for next season will depend on the outcome of the 2022/2023 austral soybean production cycle and China’s willingness to pay up for additional protein in the population’s diet. US new crop soybean sales will likely get off to a fast start as foreign buyers fill needs not satisfied by old crop US soybeans or South American austral fall winter soybean exports.
A weather market such as 2012 would probably push old crop soybean contracts well over $20 and would push new crop soybeans near that level as well. As would normally be expected, a season favorable for soybean production would favor soybean market bears.
USDA Trend line forecasts 02/2022 – Million bushels/acres Bu./Harvested acre