New Crop Soybean Outlook

USDA Is scheduled to release the first U.S. soybean supply usage balance of the 20/21 season in  May. The first balance estimates of the season are based on the March planting intention survey forecast and the size of the old soybean crop in South America.  Leftover old crop Southern American soybeans compete with new crop U.S. during the first few months of the new crop year. 

We have assumed usage will reflect a US economic recovery and a normal summer growing season. Further a recovery of the economies of the important soybean consumption centers in Europe and China will occur. We used the USDA bench mark usage estimates except for exports which appeared too optimistic based on current conditions. 

Of course the carryout stocks outlook would tighten if weather conditions prove unfavorable or more burdensome if the current recession persists into the fall. 

Table in million acres and bushels and bushels per acre. Balance does not quite match as we used in season data.