New Crop / Old Crop Soybean Futures Contract Price Spread
Historically the November – July soybean spread has been associated with the US old crop soybean carryout. The accompanying scatter studies display the winter spread range data as a function of USDA’s winter assessment of the US old crop supply/usage balance. This month (December 2024) USDA projected the 2024/25 US soybean carryout at 470 million bushels or 10.8% of crop year usage. Based on the current assessment and past behavior, November soybeans could trade between $.10 premium to July soybeans and $.50 discount to the old crop contract.
A mid to late season soybean South American crop problem would likely increase US old crop soybean export sales and tighten the US 2024/2025 US soybean carryout. This development would support July 2025 soybeans compared to November 2025 soybeans. In December USDA increased the Argentine 2025 soybean crop estimate and stayed with the Brazilian estimate used in recent months.
We have marked the spread as trading on December 11 (12 cents July premium to November) and USDA’s December carryout to usage assessment in red on the study charts).
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.3 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 51.7 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,461 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,818 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 |
| Seed | 102 | 75 | 78 | 78 |
| Residual | 5 | 39 | 45 | 35 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,348 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 470 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.20 |
| USDA ,December 2024 Data | ||||
| March Soybean Meal Futures Autumn/Winter Price Range $/Ton | ||||
| High | $525 | $511 | $445 | $350 |
| Low | $314 | $388 | $327 | $280 |
| South American Soybean Production Million Bushels | ||||
| Argentina | 1,613 | 919 | 1,767 | 1,910 |
| Brazil | 4,795 | 5,952 | 5,622 | 6,210 |