New Crop Corn Outlook – 02/22/2022

The US corn carryout would increase  modestly next season (September 2022/August2023) based on the USDA’s latest trendline projections.  USDA calculates the normal weather trend corn yield for 2022 at 181 bushels per harvested acre. We calculate the trend corn yield assuming normal weather at 179 bushels per acre. USDA assumes a modest decline in area planted to corn in 2022.The Midwest has not suffered a significant drought since 2012. We view corn belt weather deviations  in each growing season as random and  not dependent on a cycle. Still history suggests the run of good luck is overdue to end. 

Corn futures traders will continue to focus on rationing old crop supplies in view of developments in South America and the Ukraine, both major corn exporters. New crop corn  will begin to garner attention late next month when the March Prospective Plantings report will be released and farmers begin assessing field conditions as planting gets underway.