Modest increase in US hog Inventory Expected in June Report
The US hog herd appears to have increased modestly over the past year. We estimate the inventory on June 1, 2024 at 74.2 million head, one percent larger than on the same date in 2023.
Calculating the June hog herd estimate is dependent on the size of the March/May pig crop and the accuracy of USDA inventory data published the previous March. Hog producers have sharply increased efficiency over the past three decades, as evidenced by an upward trend in the number of pigs saved per litter. We have calculated The March/May pig crop by multiplying a trend pigs per litter projection and the result of the March farrowing intentions survey.
| US Hog Balance (Mar/May, Million head) | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | % Change | |
| March 1 | 73,933 | 72,689 | 74,136 | 74,571 | |
| Pig crop | 33,233 | 32,635 | 33,414 | 33,364 | 0% |
| Net imports | 1,672 | 1,740 | 1,684 | 1,700 | 1% |
| Supply | 108,838 | 107,064 | 109,234 | 109,635 | |
| Slaughter | 32,211 | 31,367 | 31,818 | 31,946 | 0% |
| Residual | 3,474 | 3,383 | 3,865 | 3,500 | -9% |
| June 1 | 73,153 | 72,314 | 73,551 | 74,189 | 1% |
| Breeding | 6,220 | 6,168 | 6,206 | 5,981 | -4% |
| Market | 66,933 | 66,146 | 67,345 | 68,208 | 1% |
| US All Hogs – 2024 Our Estimate Based on USDA Data available in late May | |||||
US hog slaughter data the last three months closely fits USDA market hog data published in March 2024. The tight USDA weight group inventory/March/May hogs processed fit suggests the March 2024 data is a stable platform to estimate the June 2024 inventory.
| US Market hogs and pigs by weight groups (000 Head, June 1) | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | % Change | |
| Under 50 # | 21,354 | 20,903 | 21,284 | 21,554 | 1.3% |
| 50-119 pounds | 18,919 | 18,691 | 18,982 | 19,371 | 2.0% |
| 120-179 # | 13,830 | 13,827 | 14,344 | 14,324 | -0.1% |
| 180 # & over | 12,829 | 12,725 | 12,735 | 12,960 | 1.8% |
| 2024 based on data available in late May 2024. | |||||
The USDA has scheduled the release of the June Hogs and Pigs report for June 27, 2024.