Midwest Corn Price Winter/Spring Highs and Lows – 1/18/2022

In the January WASDE Report the USDA forecast  the 2021/2022 US corn crop year carryout at 1.54 billion bushels based on US crop year corn usage of  14.8 billion bushels. The USDA carryout to crop year ratio would calculate to 10.4 percent.

We have scattered the high and low for central Illinois corn as a function of the USDA’s January US corn stocks/usage ratio. Note that corn is presently trading on the high side of the scatter study. A 300 million bushel increase in usage would shift the relevant point to the left to 8% and suggest $7.00 corn for a high. This winter/spring. The 300 million bushel increase would be derived from a smaller Southern Hemisphere corn crop than USDA assumed this month.

This month USDA forecast 2021/2022 crop year US corn exports at 2.45 billion bushels. The USDA’s January corn export forecast has had a 70% R2 with the final export total with a standard error of 200 million bushels. The corn export study is based on data over the last 40 years.