May Winter Wheat Estimate

The USDA has scheduled release of  the May winter wheat estimate for May 12. In an earlier post we forecast the winter wheat crop at 1234 million bushels and we will maintain that estimate as conditions have not changed radically. We did want to present a scatter study which uses the late late April winter wheat crop index as a barometer of the May winter wheat USDA yield forecast expressed as deviation from trend. 

Our post of April 28 provides a historical prospective.