May Soybeans Projection of Winter/Spring Price Range
USDA tightened up the forecast for the US soybean supply/usage outlook this month dropping the US soybean yield estimate for the 2024 season and cutting the 2025 US soybean carryout.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | |||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | Percent | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 4% |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.3 | 86.1 | 5% |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 50.7 | 0% |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 342 | |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,162 | 4,366 | 5% |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 21 | 20 | |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,447 | 4,729 | |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,287 | 2,410 | 5% |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,695 | 1,825 | 8% |
| Seed | 102 | 75 | 78 | 78 | 0% |
| Residual | 5 | 39 | 45 | 36 | |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,105 | 4,349 | 6% |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 342 | 380 | 11% |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.40 | $10.20 | -18% |
| USDA ,January 2025 Data | |||||
The accompanying scatter studies display the winter – spring high & low for May soybeans as a function of the US soybean carryout to usage ratio. USDA’s January soybean S/D assumption is associated with a May soybean price range for the winter – spring of $9.50 to $13. On 01/13/2025 May 2025 soybeans closed at $10.66 which we have plugged into the scatters as a comparison point.
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