May Corn Price Range Forecast – 11/04/2022
Last month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US corn carryout at 1.17 billion bushels or 8% of crop year usage. In the last 50 years the US corn carryout to usage ratio has averaged 14%. Several factors suggest the US corn balance is tighter than suggested by USDA. USDA has allowed for a large cut in corn feed usage even though grain consuming animal units are unlikely to decline in the 2022/23 crop year. Also there is reason to believe the 2022 US corn crop may be overestimated.
We have included two scatter studies with the high and low for May corn is displayed as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The USDA’s current 8% forecast would suggest a winter/spring price range for the May corn contract of $6.00 to $8.00 per bushel.
The current economic slowdown could dampen corn values if meat demand, the major domestic corn demand determinate, is negatively impacted by a recession.
USDA will revise the corn supply/usage forecasts on November 9. 2022.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels acres | |||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | |
| Area Planted | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 |
| Area Harvested | 82.3 | 85.3 | 80.8 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 171.4 | 176.7 | 171.9 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,919 | 1235 | 1377 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15074 | 13895 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 50 |
| Supply, Total | 16,055 | 16333 | 15322 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,598 | 5715 | 5275 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ | 6,470 | 6769 | 6725 |
| Ethanol & by-products 3/ | 5,033 | 5328 | 5275 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,068 | 12484 | 12000 |
| Exports | 2,753 | 2471 | 2150 |
| Use, Total | 14,821 | 14956 | 14150 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1377 | 1172 |
| Carryout/Usage | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% |