March Wheat Stocks vs a Low in May Chicago Wheat
We estimate US wheat stocks on March 1 at 1.2 billion bushels compared to 1.1 billion bushels a year ago. The ratio of stocks to June/February usage (excluding feed residual) was calculated at 83% compared to 87% at the same point a year ago.
We have included a scatter study displaying the spring low for May Chicago wheat as a function of the March stocks/usage ratio. Our 83% estimate suggests the May 2025 Chicago wheat contract will continue to trade over $5.00 per bushel.
| US Wheat Balance (December February)( Million Bushels) | ||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Dec 1 Stocks | 1,377 | 1,312 | 1,421 | 1,570 |
| Imports | 22 | 32 | 33 | 33 |
| Food Use | 237 | 234 | 233 | 238 |
| Exports | 181 | 182 | 181 | 197 |
| Feed Residual | -50 | 1 | -50 | -20 |
| seed | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dec/Feb Total | 370 | 417 | 365 | 416 |
| March 1 Stocks | 1,029 | 941 | 1,089 | 1,187 |
| June/February Usage | 1,384 | 1,382 | 1,258 | 1,432 |
| March Stks/Use | 74% | 68% | 87% | 83% |
| 2025 Our estimate | ||||
The March 1 Grain Stocks Report is scheduled for release March 31, 2025.
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