March Survey Point Towards Tight Corn Carryout Again in 2021/2022- 03/31/2021
US farmers responding to the March survey planned to plant 91 million acres of corn in 2021 roughly the same as was actually seeded last year but far less than was suggested by the March 2020 survey. Assuming …
… An average harvested to planted ratio of 92%.
… And a trend yield of 180.5 bushels per harvested acre as expressed in the USDA baseline forecasts ninety one million planted acres would produce a 2021 corn crop of 15.1 billion bushels.
The USDA presently forecasts 2021/2022 crop year US corn usage at 14.8 billion bushels. The projected surplus is skimpy considering the 2020/2021 carryout will be near minimum pipeline supply and the risk of poor growing weather and sub trend yields.
The March survey has been an accurate barometer of final acreage with deviations due to planting weather.