March Soybeans to revisit 2020 Levels Based on USDA September Soybean Balance Table
Soybean futures contracts are likely to dip to levels last seen in 2020 if US soybean carryout stocks build to the level forecast in the September 2024 WASDE report. The Bear case for soybeans is dependent on the assumption of a very large South American soybean crop, for which field work is just getting underway.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 86.3 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 53.2 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 340 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,586 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,449 | 4,941 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,295 | 2,425 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,700 | 1,850 |
| Seed | 102 | 75 | 78 | 78 |
| Residual | 5 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,109 | 4,391 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 340 | 550 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 12.6% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/Bu.) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.50 | $10.80 |
| USDA ,September 2024 Data | ||||
| March Soybean Futures Autumn/Winter Price Range $/Bushel Our Forecast | ||||
| High | $18 | $16 | $14 | $11 |
| Low | $12 | $14 | $11 | $8 |
| South American Soybean Production Million Bushels USDA September 2024 | ||||
| Argentina | 1,613 | 919 | 1,767 | 1,874 |
| Brazil | 4,795 | 5,952 | 5,622 | 6,210 |
The USDA’s 2024/25 Brazil-Argentina forecasts are based largely on trend. As the 2024/25 Southern Hemisphere crop cycle will likely be under the influence of the La Niña phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, the odds of drought damage increase .