March Reports suggest addition to Soybean carry out stocks under Normal Weather Assumption. – 03/29/2024
USDA’s March Planting Intentions Survey found US farmers planning to plant 87 million acres to soybeans this spring, a 3 million acre increase from planted area a year ago. Soybeans appear set to take available US farmland primarily at the expense of corn cultivation. US soybean area forecast from the March report soybean data and the final estimate, released the next January, has a 96% correlation and a standard error of 2 million acres.
Last month USDA released Baseline supply/usage forecasts for US soybeans in 2024 which we have included in the accompanying table. Based on our model USDA’s 2024 trendline soybean yield forecast would require 5% better than average growing conditions prevailing over the last 40 years. A 5% deviation is relatively small compared to the 20% year to year standard deviation in soybean growing conditions in the period from 1985 through 2023.
Prospective US soybean usage in the 2024/2025 crop year is highly dependent on crop developments in South America and demand from China, the world’s leading soybean importer. USDA’s new crop forecasts assume mean values for these factors. A major South American crop failure in 2025 (crop planted this austral spring and harvested next February through April) is a potential bullish shock. The Brazil 2024 crop appears to be modestly disappointing considering this is an El Nino year, conditions which usually favor soybean yields. Argentina has had an excellent soybean year in 2024. Data accumulation for the 2024/2025 South American season will begin this Northern Hemisphere summer with El Nino developments and continue into the South American planting season in October/November.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 86.5 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 85.5 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 52.0 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 315 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,446 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 30 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,459 | 4,776 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 | 2,375 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,720 | 1,925 |
| Seed | 102 | 97 | 102 | 103 |
| Residual | 5 | 4 | 22 | 21 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,144 | 4,424 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 315 | 352 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.65 | $11.30 |
| USDA March, 2024 WASDE Rep. , Planting Survey & Baseline usage projections. | ||||
Even considering the disappointment in Brazil, South America has a record soybean crop to sell this spring through the Northern Hemisphere autumn which will likely get US 2024/2025 soybean and soybean product export demand off to a soft start. China has been a steady world soybean customer in recent years and that is unlikely to change markedly in 2024/2025.
USDA current data suggest an increase in US soybean carryout stocks in 2024/2025.