March Hog Report- 03/25/2021

USDA reported the number of market hogs on US farms March 1, 2021 totaled  69 million head which was down one million head or 2% from a year ago. As  might be expected virtually all of the variation in March September  barrow and gilt slaughter is associated with the number of hogs on farms March 1 and net hog imports during the relevant period. The catch is USDA on occasion makes substantial revisions in survey data which throws off hog slaughter forecasts. That was the case last year (2020) when the covid-19 scare disrupted marketing patterns.  

Our economic value studies suggest hog futures prices are trading at the high end of the forecast range unless the hog survey  overstated the hog supply or China becomes a major US pork buyer as was the case last year.