March Corn Price Analysis – 11/10/2023
USDA increased the estimate of US 2023 corn production by nearly 200 million bushels this month, but also boosted the 2023/2024 crop year usage estimate with the November report estimate for the US corn 2024 carryover stocks estimate less than 50 million bushels larger than the October projection. The US corn carryout stocks to crop year 2023/2024 disappearance ratio rounds to 15% which is equal to the ratio based on USDA first 2023/2024 US corn balance sheet forecasts published in May 2023.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | |
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USDA November
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| Area Planted | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 94.9 |
| Area Harvested | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.1 | 87.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 174.9 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,715 | 15,234 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,130 | 16,621 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,721 | 5,549 | 5,650 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,467 | 6,764 | 6,558 | 6,740 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,028 | 5,326 | 5,176 | 5,325 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,074 | 12,484 | 12,108 | 12,390 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,471 | 1,661 | 2,075 |
| Use, Total | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,769 | 14,465 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 | 2,156 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 8% | 9% | 10% | 15% |
| *Based on November 2023 USDA Estimates. & projections. | ||||
We have prepared scatter studies displaying the high and low for March corn futures as a function of the US corn carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio as estimated by USDA in the late fall – early spring period. The point labeled USDA November is the current carryout to crop year usage ratio and the close for March 2024 corn futures on 11/10/2023. Assuming the recent historical relationship holds for 2024 the USDA’s current US corn balance sheet would suggest a high of less than $5.00 and a late fall – winter low of less than $4.00.
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