March Corn Forecast Harvest Winter Low – 09/22/2023
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 US corn carryout at 2.2 billion bushels or 25% of crop year usage. The accompanying scatter study shows the low price for March corn as a function of the US corn carryout as a % of crop year usage. The ratio data uses the USDA late winter estimate. Note that USDA’s current estimate for the ratio is 25% which, based on recent history, would suggest a low under $4.00 per bushel for March 2024 corn.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | |
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USDA Sept.
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| Area Planted | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 94.9 |
| Area Harvested | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.2 | 87.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.3 | 173.8 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,452 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,730 | 15,134 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 40 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,147 | 16,611 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,721 | 5,425 | 5,625 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,467 | 6,764 | 6,605 | 6,715 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,028 | 5,326 | 5,195 | 5,300 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,074 | 12,484 | 12,030 | 12,340 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,471 | 1,665 | 2,050 |
| Use, Total | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,695 | 14,390 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,452 | 2,221 |
| Carryout/Usage* | 13% | 15% | 18% | 25% |
| * Excluding Feed Residual, September 2023 USDA Estimate & Projected New Crop | ||||
The point for 2024 (USDA September) is based on the close for March futures on 9/22/2023 and the USDA September corn Supply/Usage projection. The conclusion of the study is that March corn, currently trading at $4.90+, could make a low under $4.00.