March 2025 Corn Contract Still Too Expensive?
March corn appears to be trading on the high side of the expected harvest – March price range unless USDA tightens the US 2024/2025 corn supply/usage table compared to that published in August 2024. The accompanying scatter studies display the harvest/March price range for the March corn futures contract as a function of the US corn carryout as a percent of crop year usage. Last month the USDA’s new crop data put the ratio at 14%.The point marked in red represents the close for March 2024 corn on September 3 and 14%.
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | |||||
| 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/2024 | |
| 8/12/24 | 8/12/24 | Percent | |||
| Area Planted | 92.9 | 88.2 | 94.6 | 90.7 | -4% |
| Area Harvested | 85.0 | 78.7 | 86.5 | 82.7 | -4% |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 176.7 | 173.4 | 177.3 | 183.1 | 3% |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,867 | 37% |
| Production | 15,018 | 13,651 | 15,342 | 15,147 | -1% |
| Imports | 24 | 39 | 30 | 25 | -17% |
| Supply, Total | 16,277 | 15,066 | 16,732 | 17,038 | |
| Feed and Residual | 5,671 | 5,485 | 5,775 | 5,825 | 1% |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,757 | 6,558 | 6,840 | 6,840 | 0% |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,320 | 5,176 | 5,450 | 5,450 | 0% |
| Domestic, Total | 12,427 | 12,044 | 12,615 | 12,665 | 0% |
| Exports | 2,472 | 1,662 | 2,250 | 2,300 | 2% |
| Use, Total | 14,900 | 13,706 | 14,865 | 14,965 | 1% |
| Ending Stocks | 1,377 | 1,360 | 1,867 | 2,073 | 11% |
| Carryout/Usage* | 9% | 10% | 13% | 14% | |
| Farm Price | $6.00 | $6.54 | $4.65 | $4.20 | -10% |
| March Corn Futures Harvest through winter Price Range | |||||
| High | $8.00 | $7.12 | $5.22 | $4.60 | |
| Low | $5.07 | $6.18 | $3.95 | $3.65 | |
| August 2024 USDA data. *Carryout % crop year usage | |||||
Corn market bulls will be looking for a smaller US 2024 corn crop estimate (a modest reduction possible but a major cut unlikely) or better usage (most probably need China as a more aggressive US corn buyer this fall/winter).
The next WASDE report is scheduled for September 12, 2024.