March 2024 Soybean Meal Price Range Forecast -11/13/2023
Historically the price range for March soybean meal has been associated with the US soybean supply usage balance and export demand for soybean meal. We have derived two equations expressing the price range for March Soybean meal as a function of US soybean carryout stocks to crop year usage ratio and US soybean meal exports. We have summarized the derived forecasts in the accompanying tables. The tables assume the US soybean supply as estimated by USDA in November 2023. The tables assume the labeled percent change in US soybean usage compared to the USDA’s November forecast and US soybean meal exports compared to USDA’s November projection.
The models forecast a price range of $396 to $475 based on the USDA November 2023 estimates (0% change in the tables). We were limited to +2% change for soybean usage as a larger increase would lead to a near zero carryout. The market would deal with such a situation by increasing the price of soybeans and products and pricing out the excess usage.
The models have an 82% R2 and a standard error of $46 for the highs and $37 for the lows forecasts are based in the December/March period for the years 1974 through 2023.
| March Soybean Meal $/Ton High | ||||
| % Change in Exports | ||||
| %Change in Soybean usage | 5% | 0% | -5% | |
| 2% | $558 | $540 | $522 | |
| 0% | $493 | $475 | $457 | |
| -2% | $462 | $443 | $425 | |
| Percent Change From The USDA November 2023 Forecast | ||||
| March Soybean Meal $/Ton Low | ||||
| % Change in Exports | ||||
| %Change in Soybean usage | 5% | 0% | -5% | |
| 2% | $461 | $446 | $431 | |
| 0% | $412 | $396 | $381 | |
| -2% | $387 | $372 | $357 | |
| Percent Change From The USDA Forecast | ||||
| Tables assume US Soybean Supply equals USDA Nov 2023 est. | ||||
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.8 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 49.9 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 268 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,465 | 4,270 | 4,129 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 30 |
| Supply, Total | 4,761 | 4,738 | 4,569 | 4,428 |
| Crushings | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,158 | 1,992 | 1,755 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 97 | 101 |
| Residual | -4 | 1 | 0 | 26 |
| Use, Total | 4,504 | 4,464 | 4,301 | 4,182 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 268 | 245 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% |
| USDA November 2023 WASDE Report | ||||
We have assumed a relatively stable soybean oil price through the forecast period. A substantial price move in soybean oil will push soybean meal prices in the opposite direction.