Live Hog Price Forecast

The USDA forecasts the first half 2023 hog prices @ farm level at $68 compared to the $71 realized in the first half of 2022. We have constructed two scatter studies with the high and low for April hogs as a function of the average price for hogs at farm level during the January/June period. The USDA’s first half 2023 $68 dollar forecast would equate to a price range for April 2023 hog futures of $80 to $103. The recent range for April hog futures  has been $86 to $97. USDA issues revised  US pork supply/demand and hog price forecasts on or near the 10th day of every month.

Note the red point based on April hog futures trading on 01/18/2023 and USDA January cash price forecast.