La Nina and the 2024/2025 Brazilian Soybean crop
NOAA has forecast La Nina conditions for the western Pacific for the northern hemisphere autumn of 2024. We picked out the five years with strong La Nina conditions, as defined by NOAA, and examined the Brazilian soybean crop outcome compared to trend. In one crop year, 2011/2012, yield was sharply below trend. In four of the selected years the final Brazilian soybean yield estimate was above trend.
The bulk of the Brazilian soybean crop is harvested from February through April.
| Brazil Soybean Data thousand metric Units and tonnes/Hectare | ||||
| Crop Year | Area | Production | Actual Yield | Trend Yield |
| 1988/1989 | 12,150 | 23,600 | 1.94 | 1.90 |
| 1999/2000 | 13,600 | 34,700 | 2.55 | 2.41 |
| 2007/2008 | 21,300 | 61,000 | 2.86 | 2.78 |
| 2010/2011 | 24,200 | 75,300 | 3.11 | 2.92 |
| 2011/2012 | 25,000 | 66,500 | 2.66 | 2.96 |
| USDA October 2024 Forecast | ||||
| 2024/2025 | 47,300 | 169,000 | 3.57 | 3.56 |
| Crop Years with strong La Nina (October/December) as defined by US NOAA. | ||||