Kansas City Wheat Outlook – October 19, 2023
Kansas City wheat prices have been under pressure since the mid harvest period last summer. A moderately larger US wheat crop than had been anticipated based on the early summer crop reports and, more importantly, weak export demand for US wheat, have been the dominant bearish forces.
The world wheat 2023/2024 supply/usage balance as estimated by USDA suggests a pickup in US wheat export sales this winter. And KC wheat futures prices are near the low end of economic value based on USDA’s latest 2023/24 June/July crop year US wheat supply/usage balance.
However, bullish wheat traders face an unfavorable price seasonall. Kansas City wheat futures prices have declined more than advanced from mid autumn into the winter period in 37 of the last 53 years.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | ||||
| Crop Years | 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 Est. | 2023/2024 Proj |
| Planted | 44.5 | 46.7 | 45.7 | 49.6 |
| Harv. | 36.8 | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 |
| Yield | 49.7 | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 |
| Carryin | 1028 | 845 | 698 | 582 |
| Prod | 1828 | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 |
| Imports | 100 | 95 | 122 | 135 |
| Supply | 2956 | 2587 | 2470 | 2529 |
| Food | 961 | 972 | 973 | 974 |
| Seed | 64 | 58 | 68 | 65 |
| Feed | 93 | 59 | 89 | 120 |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1088 | 1130 | 1159 |
| Exports | 994 | 800 | 759 | 700 |
| Total | 2111 | 1888 | 1888 | 1859 |
| Carryout | 845 | 698 | 582 | 670 |
| Carryout % use | 40.0% | 37.0% | 30.8% | 36.0% |
| USDA 10/12/2023 – 2023/2024 | ||||
Mid October US wheat export sales were the lowest in 30+ years.
KC March wheat is projected to trade between $6.00 and $8.00 assuming USDA’s October supply/usage estimate.