June Live Cattle Price Range Forecast

This month  USDA projected a 4% reduction in the domestically produced per capita beef supply for the first half of 2023. We have scattered the June live cattle winter-spring high and  low (adjusted for inflation) as a function of the US domestic per capita beef supply in the first half of the year. USDA’s supply estimate suggests a price range of $150 to $170 for the June 2023 live cattle contract. A decline in the US cattle inventory is expected to be an additional price supporting force in the cattle futures market. A US economic recession, which is well illustrated by the experience in 2009, is a major hazard to long cattle futures positions.

For the purposes of this study we define domestic beef supply as US beef production minus US beef exports during the January/June period.

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