June hog inventory – 06/02/2022
We calculate the US hog inventory on June 1, 2022 at 72 million head, down one million head year over year and six million fewer than the peak inventory (2020) for this cycle in 2020.
| Hog Balance Mar/May Million head | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| March 1 | 75.2 | 73.9 | 72.2 |
| Pig crop | 34.6 | 33.2 | 33.0 |
| Net imports | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Supply | 111.0 | 108.6 | 106.7 |
| Slaughter | 29.9 | 32.2 | 31.4 |
| Residual | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| June 1 | 77.7 | 73.2 | 72.0 |
| US All Hogs – 2022 Our Estimate |
We have included scatter studies with the summer trading range for August hogs as a function of the summer per capita domestic pork supply. The summer of 2022 estimates are based on the May WASDE report. USDA will make minor revisions in the pork estimates on June 10 , and could make major revisions after the June H&P report is available on June 29. As it stands August hogs are currently trading very high compared to USDA’s May US summer pork supply/usage forecast.
Note that 2021 read high on the scatters due to Chinese pork purchases. Inflation is giving a boost to 2022 Hog prices.