June Acreage Report Implication for New Crop Soybean S/D – 07/01/2022

USDA’s June acreage survey found two million plus fewer soybean acres than was forecast by the March Report. Assuming the USDA’s trend yield projection, the 88 million acres planted (87 million harvested) to soybeans would produce a crop of 4.5 billion bushels compared to the 4.4 billion bushels harvested in 2021. Crop reports at the end of June would easily support USDA’s trend yield, but weather over the next six weeks could radically change trader’s perception of US soybean crop prospects.

Our new crop US soybean carryover calculation, about 150 million bushels, is barely within the minimum pipeline level needed to avoid disruptions at the end of the season. Soybean traders will be sensitive to unfavorable July weather which could require additional rationing of new crop soybean supplies.  

The seasonal (based on data from 1970 through 2021) for November soybeans forms a price range from  $12.50 to $16.50. A major weather market would likely push November soybeans over $20.