July Soybean Oil Price Seasonal Bulllish
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 crop year US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 4.8% of crop year usage. July soybean oil has advanced more than declined in 8 of 9 years in which the USDA January US soybean carryout forecast was less than 6% of estimated crop year usage.
A larger than expected soybean crop (mostly March June harvest ) is the major hazard to long July soybean oil positions.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres Bushels | |||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51 | 51.7 | 49.5 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 |
| Imports | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 15 |
| Supply, Total | 4,761 | 4,738 | 4566 |
| Crushings | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2245 |
| Exports | 2,261 | 2,158 | 1990 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Residual | 1 | 2 | 18 |
| Use, Total | 4,504 | 4,465 | 4355 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 210 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% |
| USDA January 2023 | |||
| July Soybean Oil ($/Cwt.) | |||||||
| Mid January | February/July | FOM- | FOM- | ||||
| Years* | FOM | Max | Min | MAX | MIN | Net | UPDOWN |
| 1970 | $12 | $15 | $10 | 26% | -11% | 15% | 1 |
| 1971 | $11 | $13 | $10 | 13% | -12% | 1% | 1 |
| 1973 | $10 | $20 | $10 | 97% | -2% | 95% | 1 |
| 1977 | $21 | $29 | $20 | 38% | -6% | 32% | 1 |
| 2004 | $28 | $35 | $26 | 25% | -6% | 18% | 1 |
| 2011 | $59 | $61 | $53 | 4% | -9% | -5% | -1 |
| 2013 | $39 | $45 | $37 | 16% | -6% | 10% | 1 |
| 2014 | $39 | $45 | $37 | 16% | -6% | 10% | 1 |
| 2021 | $58 | $88 | $58 | 51% | -1% | 50% | 1 |
| 2023 | |||||||
| *Years in which US soybean carryout was less than 6% of crop year usage (January USDA estimate) | |||||||