July Soybean Meal Futures Conditioned Seasonal – February 9. 2023
This month USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 225 million bushels or 5% of crop year Usage. July soybean meal futures prices have advanced more than declined in 13 of 15 years (since 1970) in which USDA forecast a 8% or less US soybean carryout to usage ratio in the February Wasde report.
A very bullish soybean oil market this spring would be a major hazard to a strong soybean meal price trend.
| July Soybean Meal | ||||||
| Late Winter Early Summer | ||||||
| Year* | Mid Winter | High | % Chg. | Low | % Chg. | x=Bull Year |
| 1971 | $80 | $89 | 12% | $77 | -4% | X |
| 1972 | $89 | $110 | 23% | $87 | -3% | X |
| 1973 | $161 | $451 | 180% | $157 | -2% | X |
| 1975 | $134 | $145 | 9% | $112 | -16% | O |
| 1977 | $211 | $310 | 47% | $152 | -28% | X |
| 1997 | $232 | $298 | 28% | $226 | -3% | X |
| 2003 | $166 | $207 | 24% | $165 | -1% | X |
| 2004 | $259 | $379 | 46% | $238 | -8% | X |
| 2008 | $347 | $457 | 32% | $303 | -13% | X |
| 2009 | $323 | $433 | 34% | $256 | -21% | X |
| 2010 | $278 | $320 | 15% | $251 | -10% | X |
| 2011 | $383 | $394 | 3% | $328 | -15% | O |
| 2013 | $407 | $545 | 34% | $388 | -5% | X |
| 2014 | $398 | $509 | 28% | $395 | -1% | X |
| 2021 | $432 | $457 | 6% | $340 | -21% | O |
| 2022 | $392 | $500 | 28% | $395 | 1% | X |
| 2023 | ||||||
| Years in which USDA Forecast a Soybean US Soybean Carryout Less than 8% of Crop year usage in the February WASDE report. | ||||||