July Soybean Futures Projected Winter-Spring Low – 01/15/2024
This month the USDA forecast the 2023/24 crop year US soybean carryout at 280 million bushels or about 7% of crop year usage. Based on the soybean inflation adjusted price-carryout function over the last 50 years, a carryout of 280 million bushels would result in a projected January – May low, basis the July soybean contract, of $11.4.per bushel. The low forecast has a standard error of $1.50.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 264 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 25 | 30 |
| Supply, Total | 4,761 | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,459 |
| Crushings | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,300 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,152 | 1,992 | 1,755 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 97 | 101 |
| Residual | -4 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| Use, Total | 4,504 | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,179 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 280 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% |
| USDA January 12, 2024 WASDE Report | ||||