July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal
July Soybean Conditioned Seasonal
This month the USDA forecast the 2022/2023 US soybean carryout at 210 million bushels or 5% of crop year usage (crush + exports + seed). July soybeans prices have advanced more than declined in 14 of 15 years in which the USDA’s January carryout to usage ratio was less than 8% of projected crop year usage.
In the hazard (the bear market year of 2010/2011) example in the study, US soybean crop year exports fell well short of USDA’ s early winter expectations.
| July Soybeans $/Bushel | ||||||
| February July | ||||||
| *YEARS | Jan-27 | High | % Change | Low | % Change | X=Bull Years |
| 1971 | $3.17 | $3.52 | 11% | $2.90 | -9% | X |
| 1972 | $3.24 | $3.66 | 13% | $3.20 | -1% | X |
| 1973 | $4.30 | $12.90 | 200% | $4.43 | 3% | X |
| 1977 | $7.22 | $10.64 | 47% | $5.76 | -20% | X |
| 1997 | $7.46 | $9.02 | 21% | $7.04 | -6% | X |
| 2003 | $5.54 | $6.58 | 19% | $5.51 | -1% | X |
| 2004 | $8.27 | $10.64 | 29% | $7.86 | -5% | X |
| 2008 | $12.71 | $16.60 | 31% | $11.35 | -11% | X |
| 2009 | $10.39 | $12.91 | 24% | $8.42 | -19% | X |
| 2010 | $9.65 | $10.41 | 8% | $9.22 | -4% | X |
| 2011 | $14.30 | $14.75 | 3% | $12.78 | -11% | |
| 2013 | $14.20 | $16.30 | 15% | $13.37 | -6% | X |
| 2014 | $12.52 | $15.37 | 23% | $12.35 | -1% | X |
| 2021 | $13.55 | $16.68 | 23% | $13.18 | -3% | X |
| 2023 | $14.98 | $17.25 | 15% | $13.74 | -8% | X |
| 2023 | $14.96 | |||||
| *Years in which USDA’s January US Soybean carryout estimate was less than 8% of crop year usage ex residual. | ||||||