January Soybean Supply/Usage Revisions

The USDA made only minor changes in the soybean complex supply/usage estimates this month. USDA elected not to change the South American soybean crop estimate  leaving Brazil at 123 million tonnes and Argentine output at 53 million tonnes.

USDA shuffled the estimates for the 2019 soybean crop reducing the area harvested estimate and raising the yield per acre estimate. Recall the 2019 crop was planted under very wet conditions preventing seeding altogether on some intended area.

The U.S. soybean carryout is still forecast at  475 million bushels. We have plotted the final carryout estimate compared to the January estimate for the years 1975 through 2020.. The resulting correlation is 76%. The red point represents 2020 assuming the final estimate equals the January estimate of 475 million bushels.