Is There Still a Bear Case for Chicago Wheat Futures?
US wheat farmers enjoyed a banner year with the 2024 national average wheat yield only fractionally under the record set in 2016. The March 2025 Chicago wheat futures contract is currently trading well above the autumn/winter low established by the 2024 March Chicago wheat contract even though the 2024/2025 US wheat carryover is expected to be 18% larger than the 2023/2024 carryout stocks.
We modeled the price range for March wheat as a function of the ratio of US wheat end of season stocks as a % of crop year usage, and several other trend factors, and produced a forecast range of $5.08 to $6.75. The Chicago March 2025 wheat contract was trading just under $6.00 on September 6, 2024.
| US Wheat Supply/Usage (Million Bu./ Acres) | |||||
| Crop Years | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | %Change |
| Planted | 46.7 | 45.8 | 49.6 | 46.3 | -7% |
| Harv. | 37.1 | 35.5 | 37.3 | 37.9 | 2% |
| Yield | 44.3 | 46.5 | 48.6 | 52.2 | 7% |
| Carryin | 845 | 674 | 570 | 702 | 23% |
| Prod | 1646 | 1650 | 1812 | 1982 | 9% |
| Imports | 96 | 122 | 138 | 105 | -24% |
| Supply | 2588 | 2446 | 2520 | 2789 | |
| Food | 971 | 973 | 961 | 964 | 0% |
| Seed | 58 | 68 | 64 | 62 | -3% |
| Feed | 88 | 77 | 86 | 110 | 28% |
| Domestic | 1117 | 1118 | 1111 | 1136 | 2% |
| Exports | 796 | 759 | 707 | 825 | 17% |
| Total | 1913 | 1876 | 1818 | 1961 | |
| Carryout | 674 | 570 | 702 | 828 | 18% |
| Farm $/Bu. | $7.63 | $8.83 | $6.96 | $5.70 | -18% |
| Carryout%use | 35.2% | 30.4% | 38.6% | 42.2% | |
| March Chicago Wheat Autumn Winter Trading Range | |||||
| High | $14.25 | $9.62 | $6.50 | $6.75 | |
| Low | $6.88 | $6.54 | $5.20 | $5.08 | |
| Based on USDA Data Available 8/12/2024 | |||||
USDA will provide updated US Wheat data in the Small Grains report scheduled for release September 30, 2024.