Is $320 March 2025 Soybean Meal Too Cheap?
Only if the 2024/25 (Northern Hemisphere spring 2025 harvest) South American soybean crop falls significantly short of the USDA’s September 2024 forecast. The accompanying scatter studies display the high/low price range for March soybean meal as a function of the new crop US soybean carryover to crop year usage ratio. The USDA’s September soybean balance table results in a 12.6% ratio and suggests a low under $300 for March 2025 soybean meal.
Soybean meal market bulls will depend on crop problems during the 2024/2025 Southern hemisphere crop cycle to make long bets profitable. The upcoming South American crop season appears likely to be under the influence of the La Nina or at least neutral phase of the Southern Pacific oscillation cycle (ENSO) which does increase the odds of drought, especially in Brazil.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | Change | ||||
| 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | 2024/2025 | 2025/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 | 87.1 | 4 |
| Area Harvested | 86.3 | 86.2 | 82.4 | 86.3 | 4 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.7 | 49.6 | 50.6 | 53.2 | 3 |
| Beginning Stocks | 257 | 274 | 264 | 340 | 76 |
| Production | 4,464 | 4,270 | 4,165 | 4,586 | 421 |
| Imports | 16 | 25 | 20 | 15 | -5 |
| Supply, Total | 4,737 | 4,569 | 4,449 | 4,941 | 492 |
| Crushings | 2,204 | 2,212 | 2,295 | 2,425 | 130 |
| Exports | 2,152 | 1,980 | 1,700 | 1,850 | 150 |
| Seed | 102 | 75 | 78 | 78 | 0 |
| Residual | 5 | 39 | 36 | 38 | 2 |
| Use, Total | 4,463 | 4,305 | 4,109 | 4,391 | 282 |
| Ending Stocks | 274 | 264 | 340 | 550 | 210 |
| % Use | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 12.6% | |
| Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) | $13.30 | $14.20 | $12.50 | $10.80 | -$1.70 |
| USDA ,September 2024 Data | |||||
| March Soybean Meal Futures Autumn/Winter Price Range $/Ton | |||||
| High | $525 | $511 | $445 | $350 | |
| Low | $314 | $388 | $327 | $280 | |
| South American Soybean Production Million Bushels | |||||
| Argentina | 1,613 | 919 | 1,767 | 1,874 | |
| Prod | 4,795 | 5,952 | 5,622 | 6,210 | |
Note the price range forecast displayed in the scatter studies was based on our model.