Hogs & Pigs December Survey And Projected Pork Production – 12/22/2023
USDA’ December Hog census estimated the total US herd on December 1, 2023 at 75 million head which was equal to the revised data from a year ago. The number of hogs kept for breeding was down 2% from a year earlier as was the farrowing intentions survey for the first half of the December 2023/November 2024 crop year. US hog producers apparently view the profit outlook for the next year as moderately bearish.
The accompanying table displays the derivation of a US January/June pork production estimate based on original hog survey data from USDA. Note that we expect US pork production during the January 2024/June 2024 period to be equal to that during the same period in 2023.
| US Commercial January/June Hog Slaughter / Pork Production (Thousand Head – Million Pounds) | |||||
| 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | Percent | |
| Market Hogs 12/1 | 71,226 | 68,021 | 66,966 | 68,973 | 103% |
| Net Imports | 3,228 | 3,304 | 3,310 | 3,410 | |
| FIS Slaughter: | |||||
| B&G | 62,747 | 60,247 | 61,330 | 62,126 | 101% |
| Sows-Boars | 1,755 | 1,678 | 1,728 | 1,670 | |
| Commercial Slaughter | 64,765 | 62,223 | 63,350 | 62,416 | 99% |
| Weight | 216 | 218 | 216 | 218 | |
| Pork Production | 13,959 | 13,543 | 13,664 | 13,625 | 100% |
| 2023/2024 Our Estimate. Market Hog Data as Published in Original Survey. | |||||