Hogs and Pigs Report June 2020

The USDA estimated the U.S hog inventory on June 1 at almost 80 million head a record for the date. 

We have plotted the June hog inventory plus net live hog imports compared to the commercial hog slaughter  in the following June/November period. Note the big increase in finished  hog supplies expected during the summer fall period.

Deliverable hog prices are likely to dip below $40/Cwt this fall, maybe even under $30 depending on demand. A surge in pork export demand would be a supporting force, but  probably would just widen the pork carcass-live spread.