Hog Herd Expands modestly over the last Year – 3/30/2024

USDA’s March Hog census found the US hog herd was just 1% larger than a year ago on 1 March 2024 and just under the record large March count  established in 2020. March market hog numbers were also up 1% from the same time in 2023 while hogs retained for herd maintenance were down  2% year over year.

Market hog and December 2023 /February 2024 pig  crop data provide a basis for forecasting   April 2024 through December 2024 hog marketings. We have charted the April/December data with the 2024 point up 1% from a year ago and just short of the peak in spring through autumn US commercial hog slaughter established in 2020 and 2021. 

US farmers  plan to reduce the number of sows farrowing in spring and summer 2024. US pork supplies could tighten modestly during the first half of 2025 assuming  farmers follow through with production plans as detailed in the March report. 

USDA will review pork forecasts published earlier  this month and print any revisions in the WASDE report scheduled for release on April 11 ,2024. This month USDA estimated 2024 US pork production would increase 2% on a year over year basis. USDA’s pork production estimate is on  the high side. but within of the standard error range, calculated from our commercial hog slaughter forecast detailed earlier.