Harvest Soybean Economic Value Study- 07/14/2021

This month the USDA forecast the 2021/2022 crop year US soybean carryout at 155  million bushels or 3.5% of usage (excluding residual). A carryover of less than 5% would be considered the minimum pipeline level based on historical data.

We have scattered the harvest time lows and highs for central Illinois cash soybeans as a function of the USDA’s fall forecast for the new crop soybean carryout to usage ratio. Note that the USDA’s current estimate is on the sharp upturn of the historical function leaving no room for a  crop much smaller than the USDA’s current estimate.