Forecasting a Price range for the 2024 May corn contract – 12/29/2023
In the 30 years ending with the 2022/23 corn crop year 80% of the variation in the May corn winter/spring Price range was associated with the US corn carryout stocks to usage ratio and the Livestock price index as published by USDA.. We have constructed the accompanying tables with forecasts for the high and low for May 2024 corn based on alternative assumptions .for 2023/.24 crop year US corn feed residual disappearance and exports. Other assumptions are derived from the USDA’s corn supply/demand estimates and livestock price forecasts included in the December 2023 WASDE report.
We have chosen US crop year corn exports and corn feed residual usage as variables in the tables as in the last 50 years these demand categories have had the greatest variation from late autumn to early summer expectations which as reflected in changes in USDA corn supply/demand estimates
| May 2024 Corn January/May High $/Bu. | |||||
| September | US Corn Feed Residual Disappearance (Million Bushels) | ||||
| August | 5,450 | 5,650 | 5,850 | 6,050 | |
| 1,900 | $5.60 | $5.72 | $5.87 | $6.05 | |
| 2,000 | $5.67 | $5.81 | $5.98 | $6.17 | |
| US Corn Exports | 2,100 | $5.76 | $5.90 | $6.09 | $6.32 |
| Million bushels | 2,200 | $5.85 | $6.02 | $6.22 | $6.47 |
| 2,300 | $5.95 | $6.14 | $6.36 | $6.65 | |
| 2,400 | $6.06 | $6.27 | $6.53 | $6.86 | |
| May 2024 Corn January/May Low $/Bu. | |||||
| September | US Corn Feed Residual Disappearance (Million Bushels) | ||||
| August | 5,450 | 5,650 | 5,850 | 6,050 | |
| 1,900 | $4.70 | $4.78 | $4.88 | $4.99 | |
| 2,000 | $4.75 | $4.84 | $4.94 | $5.07 | |
| US Corn Exports | 2,100 | $4.81 | $4.90 | $5.02 | $5.16 |
| Million bushels | 2,200 | $4.86 | $4.97 | $5.10 | $5.26 |
| 2,300 | $4.93 | $5.05 | $5.19 | $5.38 | |
| 2,400 | $5.00 | $5.13 | $5.30 | $5.51 | |
Based on USDA’s December 2023 data the May Corn contract in January/May 2024 has a projected high of $5.90 and a forecast low of $4.90. The high projection has a standard error of $.89 per bushel and a standard error for the low projection of $.70 per bushel. In the 30 years ending in 2023 the May corn contract has had an average seasonal (January/May) price range (difference between low and high) of $1.20 per bushel adjusted for inflation
| US Corn Supply/Usage Million Bushels & acres | ||||
| 2021/22 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | |
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USDA December
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| Area Planted | 90.7 | 93.3 | 88.6 | 94.9 |
| Area Harvested | 82.3 | 85.3 | 79.1 | 87.1 |
| Yield per Harv. Ac. | 171.4 | 176.7 | 173.4 | 174.9 |
| Beginning Stocks | 1,919 | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 |
| Production | 14,111 | 15,074 | 13,715 | 15,234 |
| Imports | 24 | 24 | 39 | 25 |
| Supply, Total | 16,055 | 16,333 | 15,130 | 16,621 |
| Feed and Residual | 5,607 | 5,721 | 5,549 | 5,650 |
| Food, Seed & Industrial | 6,467 | 6,764 | 6,558 | 6,740 |
| Ethanol & by-products | 5,028 | 5,326 | 5,176 | 5,325 |
| Domestic, Total | 12,074 | 12,484 | 12,108 | 12,390 |
| Exports | 2,747 | 2,471 | 1,661 | 2,100 |
| Use, Total | 14,821 | 14,956 | 13,769 | 14,490 |
| Ending Stocks | 1,235 | 1,377 | 1,361 | 2,131 |
| Carryout/Usage | 8% | 9% | 10% | 15% |
| *LPI | 99 | 135 | 135 | 140 |
| *Livestock Price Index (2011=100) January/May average | ||||