Forecasting a Harvest Low for November Soybeans – September 16, 2023
This month USDA projected the 2023/2024 crop year US soybean carryover at 220 million bushels or 5.3% of crop year usage. Historically the harvest low price for November soybeans has been correlated with the new crop carryover to usage ratio. The USDA’s current US soybean S/D would suggest a low near $12.
| US Soybean S/D Million acres / Bushels | ||||
| 2020/2021 | 2021/2022 | 2022/2023 | 2023/2024 | |
| Area Planted | 83.4 | 87.2 | 87.5 | 83.6 |
| Area Harvested | 82.6 | 86.3 | 86.3 | 82.8 |
| Yield per Harvested Acre | 51.0 | 51.7 | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| Beginning Stocks | 525 | 257 | 274 | 250 |
| Production | 4,216 | 4,465 | 4,276 | 4,146 |
| Imports | 20 | 16 | 30 | 30 |
| Supply, Total | 4,761 | 4,738 | 4,581 | 4,426 |
| Crushings | 2,141 | 2,204 | 2,220 | 2,290 |
| Exports | 2,266 | 2,158 | 1,990 | 1,790 |
| Seed | 101 | 102 | 97 | 101 |
| Residual | -4 | 1 | 23 | 25 |
| Use, Total | 4,504 | 4,464 | 4,330 | 4,206 |
| Ending Stocks | 257 | 274 | 250 | 220 |
| % Use | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% |
| USDA September 2023 WASDE Report | ||||
A surge in export demand for US soybeans is the most likely development to significantly alter the 2023/2024 soybean balance. China is the world’s leading soybean market, but the USDA’s current assessment does not suggest a major increase in Chinese soybean imports in 2023/2024.
Brazil has assumed the role of the world’s number one soybean producer and exporter. The current strong El Nino phase of the Southern Oscillation cycle points toward a record large Brazilian soybean crop in the 2023/2024 austral season.