Finished Steer Price Forecast for 2023

The USDA has forecast the 2023 average price for finished steers in Nebraska at $159 based on US domestic per capita beef supply of 56 pounds, the tightest supply since 2016. We have scattered the high and low month for finished steer values as a function of the per capita beef supply. Note that the scatter function appears to have shifted up which we attribute to the declining cattle inventory,  the need to reduce beef consumption to preserve & eventually reverse the US cattle inventory cycle, and to attract beef imports and reduce beef exports to supplement US beef production.  

Based on the recent price shift and assuming USDA’s January 2023 beef data,  we forecast the high month for Nebraska steers at $170 and the low month at $140. The 2000-2022 price seasonal for steers has seen the high occur in the spring or autumn and the low during the summer months. 

The red point is based on the January 2023 USDA data and the recent cash price for mid January 2023.