Finished Cattle Prices vs USDA’s Forecast – 1/28/2022

Fat cattle prices (basis the Midwest) are trading very close to the USDA first quarter forecast of $139/hundredweight. USDA has the live cattle value trading the low  to mid $130’s range through the late summer then advancing into the Autumn. The cattle futures market is trading premium to the USDA forecast  especially in the spring and fall as represented by the April and December contracts. Note in the chart that cash grain fed cattle prices move seasonally higher into the very early spring and then again from late summer into early winter.

The USDA and deliverable cattle values will eventually converge.