Feeder Cattle Spring/Early Summer Price Forecast – 03/13/2024
US feeder cattle supplies appear to be the tightest this century. In The accompanying scatter studies we have set deliverable feeder cattle price as a function of the April feeder cattle supply as calculated by USDA. The points for 2024 are based on data available in Mid March 2024 and the close for May feeder cattle futures on 03/13/2024.
| US Feeder Supply Million Head | |||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| US Feeder supply Jan 1: Million Head | |||||
|
Calves < 500 lbs.
|
14.3 | 14.0 | 13.7 | 13.3 | |
|
Steers over 500 lbs.
|
16.8 | 16.7 | 16.1 | 15.8 | |
|
Other Heifers over 500 lbs
|
9.8 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | |
| Total | 40.9 | 40.7 | 39.5 | 38.6 | |
|
Minus On feed Jan 1
|
14.7 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 14.4 | |
|
Feeder cattle outside
|
|||||
|
feedlots on Jan 1
|
26.2 | 26.0 | 25.3 | 24.2 | |
| January/March | |||||
|
Calf-Steer Heifer Markeing
|
6.6 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.3 | |
| On Feed April 1 | 14.6 | 14.8 | 14.1 | 14.1 | |
|
Feeder cattle outside
|
|||||
|
feedlots on April 1
|
19.7 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 18.3 | |
Other forces impacting feeder cattle prices include the cost of corn and soybean meal and demand for beef. Both corn and soybean meal values are near three year lows which is a positive price force on feeder cattle futures prices. US beef demand remains strong although usage has declined as prices have moved up the demand curve.
Based on the scatter studies, May feeder cattle would be expected to trade between $250 and $285. Note that the assumed data point for 2024 is beyond previous experience making the expected standard error of the forecasts wider than projections made with more historical data..