February South American Soybean Forecasts
The USDA’s February forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop used a yield slightly above the 25 year trend. The Argentine soybean yield for 2020 was assumed to be directly on the 25 year trend.
The USDA’s February Brazilian production estimate on a first difference basis has only a 40% correlation coefficient with the final estimate. The same data for Argentina results in a 72% correlation. The sample data included all of the 2000s. The point is there can still be major changes in the South American soybean production estimates.
Current conditions appear just sufficient to support USDA’s February estimates.